Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing Local Government Earnings Growth
Across West Virginia Counties
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
West Virginia:
2010-2022 = 1.90%
2022 = 2.67%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real local government earnings growth across all of West Virginia's 55 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this West Virginia Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real local government earnings growth of West Virginia's 55 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* Local Government
Earnings Growth
West Virginia:
2010-2022 = 1.90%
2022 = 2.67%
This figure displays the 55 counties of West Virginia as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real local government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real local government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real local government earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 1.90%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 1.90% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (1.90%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 25 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 26 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 20 counties whose most recent (2022) real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.67%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 31 counties whose real local government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 55 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 1.90% over 2010-2022 and 2.67% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (1.90%) and near-term (2.67%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (1.90%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the West Virginia average (2.67%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (1.90%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (2.67%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real local government earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (1.90%) and near-term (2.67%).
   
 
Summary of West Virginia's 55 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(2.67%)
Above
(2.67%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(1.90%)
9
16
25
Below
(1.90%)
22
4
26
 
31
20
51
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
West Virginia:
2010-2022 = 1.90%
2022 = 2.67%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the West Virginia counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed West Virginia's average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.90%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.67%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of West Virginia's 55 counties, 16 (29%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
West Virginia:
2010-2022 = 1.90%
2022 = 2.67%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 9 West Virginia counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.90%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 2.67%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Observe that 9 (16%) of West Virginia's 55 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
West Virginia:
2010-2022 = 1.90%
2022 = 2.67%
This figure shows the distribution of the 4 West Virginia counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real local government earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 1.90%), while they outpaced West Virginia's average near-term (2022 = 2.67%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of West Virginia's 55 counties, only 7% (4) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
West Virginia:
2010-2022 = 1.90%
2022 = 2.67%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 22 West Virginia counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real local government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 1.90%) as well as near-term (2022 = 2.67%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real local government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
40% of West Virginia's counties, 22 of 55, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
West Virginia
Real* Local Government Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
3
3.58
 
4
6.75
280,750
 
10
2.81
 
7
6.49
82,362
 
25
1.94
 
13
5.20
45,601
 
9
2.82
 
14
5.11
215,850
 
22
2.01
 
6
6.62
12,759
 
5
3.41
 
5
6.68
52,992
 
23
2.00
 
21
3.54
71,163
 
17
2.15
 
1
19.57
40,583
 
7
2.95
 
17
4.71
28,289
 
6
3.08
 
8
5.76
82,870
 
4
3.42
 
15
4.99
236,012
 
15
2.26
 
18
4.44
133,764
 
13
2.50
 
10
5.48
14,545
 
21
2.04
 
11
5.45
21,702
 
20
2.05
 
20
3.76
43,815
 
11
2.68
 
3
7.87
17,977
Slipping Counties
 
1
5.70
 
53
-0.87
25,717
 
19
2.12
 
24
2.61
63,577
 
16
2.25
 
23
2.64
183,474
 
14
2.49
 
36
1.99
121,857
 
18
2.13
 
29
2.24
27,201
 
2
3.78
 
26
2.59
31,348
 
8
2.87
 
51
-0.11
75,634
 
24
1.95
 
25
2.59
20,527
 
12
2.53
 
34
2.07
55,139
Gaining Counties
 
34
1.50
 
22
3.50
22,234
 
27
1.87
 
2
7.94
34,140
 
49
-0.97
 
9
5.69
27,803
 
39
1.28
 
12
5.31
80,896
Lagging Counties
 
31
1.63
 
28
2.35
27,950
 
42
1.00
 
47
1.14
29,181
 
38
1.34
 
41
1.54
82,916
 
33
1.54
 
32
2.15
60,511
 
35
1.49
 
43
1.42
456,598
 
43
0.92
 
54
-13.98
34,282
 
37
1.42
 
39
1.71
75,419
 
48
-0.71
 
49
0.55
43,815
 
47
-0.25
 
31
2.17
119,235
 
32
1.57
 
33
2.09
51,711
 
36
1.45
 
30
2.23
51,102
 
46
0.52
 
40
1.69
48,955
 
51
-2.55
 
50
-0.10
48,275
 
30
1.64
 
27
2.57
19,194
 
26
1.89
 
42
1.44
116,613
 
29
1.73
 
46
1.18
158,010
 
28
1.83
 
48
1.10
54,937
 
45
0.74
 
52
-0.30
23,868
 
50
-1.22
 
55
-46.01
15,135
 
41
1.03
 
44
1.42
50,340
 
40
1.24
 
45
1.29
177,625
 
44
0.84
 
37
1.87
45,386
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
19
3.83
13,219
 
U
U
 
35
2.06
193,010
 
U
U
 
16
4.86
23,629
 
U
U
 
38
1.84
11,828
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1.90
 
2.67
4,183,325
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.47
 
2.84
1,199,218,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620320_LSGL
 
   
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